posted at 04:50
Author Name: Sam Ro
Economic Preview, July 30
Three big economic events were set to occur in the U.S. on Wednesday. ADP Employment Change: Economists estimated private payrolls climbed by 230,000 in July, down from 281,000 in June. "The early July employment data - claims, regional manufacturing surveys - suggest an improving trend in hiring. Relative to the BLS data, ADP growth has run at a slower pace four out of the last five months," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists. GDP: Economists estimate Q2 climbed at a 3.0% rate with personal consumption increasing at a 1.9% rate. "Perhaps even more notably, personal consumption expenditures grew at an initially reported 3.0% pace, but the figure was revised down to only 1.0%. While the decline in Q1 GDP was rather discouraging, economic indicators thus far in Q2 have been much more upbeat. While we still see net exports putting a drag on economic growth, inventory-building should provide a boost in Q2." FOMC: At 2:00 p.m. ET, the FOMC will publish its statement. There will be no update to the committee's economic forecasts, and there will be no press conference or Q&A to follow. Economists estimate the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, and taper monthly Treasury purchases by $5 billion and monthly mortgage backed securities purchases by $5 billion. Here's Goldman Sachs' David Mericle: "We expect that next week's FOMC statement will show very little change. The FOMC might choose to upgrade the language on growth in economic activity somewhat, and it might also strengthen the language on labor market indicators a touch in recognition of the strong June employment report. For the most part recent data have supported the characterization of current conditions in the June statement. In particular, the softer June CPI print likely reinforced the Committee's decision to downplay the firmer inflation prints seen from March to May, and weak housing starts and new home sales reports have likely reinforced concern about the housing sector."

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