posted at 02:00
Author Name: Mike Bird
Chinas Growth Headed For A Nosedive
Chinese growth is set to be slashed in half in the next decade, according a report on the country's changing economy covered by the Wall Street Journal. The report from the Conference Board says China is heading for "a long, slow fall in economic growth," down to about 3.9% between 2020 and 2024. The government is aiming for a 7.5% expansion currently, but growth was regularly in double figures in the decades before the financial crisis. A chart from Insee, France's statistical agency, shows that Chinese growth has already slowed to near the lowest levels in its modern history. A further decline below 4% would cut the country's growth to its lowest level in at least 35 years. International economist Michael Pettis outlined this weekend just how hard China's slowdown could hit the world, given the massive position the country now takes in the global economy. I have studied most of the major growth miracles of the past 100 years, and in every case there have been pessimists that predicted a difficult adjustment process with much slower growth. In every such case these pessimistic predictions were met with general incredulity but while I have indeed found that the pessimists have always been wrong, it always turned out that they were wrong because actual growth turned out to be much worse than they predicted.

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