posted at 20:50
Author Name: Tomas Hirst
UKIP Wins Rochester And Strood By-Election
Earlier in the week Reckless suggested that two further Conservative MPs were ready to defect to UKIP if the party won in Thursday's by-election. In particular, a recent YouGov survey showed that UKIP have been making serious inroads into the support base of the opposition Labour party. While in January 2013 almost 60% of respondents said they had voted Conservative in the 2010 General Election, that figure has now fallen to 48%. Meanwhile the percentage of UKIP supporters who claimed to have voted Labour in 2010 has increased from 7% to 15%. YouGovHow UKIP's support has changed. Despite these gains, under the first-past-the-post system a party's share of the national vote doesn't necessarily translate into a similar share of seats in parliament. Although UKIP's share of the national vote is highly likely to exceed that of the Liberal Democrats they are very unlikely to win anywhere near as many parliamentary seats. So based on this metric UKIP's surge in the polls may translate to as little as 4 parliamentary seats while the UK's third biggest party by seats could be the Scottish National Party, the same party that lead the charge to pull Scotland out of the country in September's independence referendum. Using the election forecasting model designed by Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia, Benjamin Lauderdale of London School of Economics and Nick Vivyan of Durham University, with 11% of the vote UKIP is projected to win only four seats. UKIP today have given the major parties of Westminster their second bloody nose in two months.

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